[SMM Rebar Daily Review] Rebar futures rally boosts spot cargo rally, but trading volume fails to keep up amid off-season demand

Today, rebar futures fluctuated upward, closing at 2,990, up 0.98% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot prices, most markets saw a slight increase in quotes driven by rebar futures, with gains ranging from 10 to 30 yuan/mt. Trading activity throughout the day was moderate. On the fundamental side, supply side, the profit levels of blast furnace steel mills remained above 100 yuan, and their production willingness was moderate. Some steel mills that had undergone maintenance earlier resumed production as planned. EAF steel mills faced difficulties in collecting scrap and were mostly operating at a loss, making it difficult to increase their operating rates in the short term. The overall supply pressure for construction steel persisted. Demand side, the continuous rainy season in south China and high temperatures in the north persisted, hindering construction activities at some sites. End-users mostly maintained purchasing as needed, and market transactions were concentrated on low-priced resources. Merchants became more cautious in their operations. Overall, the supply-demand imbalance for construction steel is gradually accumulating, and market confidence is slightly lacking. However, considering the continuous "speculative news" on coking coal, which has driven the futures market for coking coal and coke stronger, providing bottom support for rebar futures and spot prices, it is expected that short-term construction steel prices may fluctuate rangebound.